The bottom line: the goal isn’t to figure out who the favourite is and bet on it. Rather, the goal is to figure out who the favourite is and whether the odds are fair or not. If the odds are fair, there’s no reason (other than sentiment) to bet on one team or the other. […] Success in investing doesn’t come from buying good things, but from buying things well, and it’s essential to know the difference. […] It’s not a matter of what you buy, but what you pay for it.